Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jessica Cisneros a 54% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Henry Cuellar won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jessica Cisneros — 54% model odds
  2. Henry Cuellar — 46% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts