Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jessica Cisneros a 53% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Henry Cuellar won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Jessica Cisneros — 53% model odds
2. Henry Cuellar — 42% model odds (won)
3. Tannya Judith Benavides — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts