Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jan Mcdowell a 45% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Jan Mcdowell won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jan Mcdowell — 45% model odds (won)
  2. Derrik T. Gay — 45% model odds
  3. Kathy Fragnoli — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts