Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tony Gonzalez a 79% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Tony Gonzalez won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tony Gonzalez — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Alma Arredondo-Lynch — 10% model odds
  3. Alía Garcia — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts