Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Monica De La Cruz a 68% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Monica De La Cruz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Monica De La Cruz — 68% model odds (won)
  2. Mauro Garza — 4% model odds
  3. Sara Canady — 4% model odds
  4. Ryan Krause — 4% model odds
  5. Steve, Jr. Schmuker — 4% model odds
  6. John C. Lerma — 4% model odds
  7. Aizar Cavazos — 4% model odds
  8. Angela Juarez — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts