Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Vallejo a 52% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Michelle Vallejo won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Michelle Vallejo — 52% model odds (won)
  2. Ruben Ramirez — 48% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts