Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Vallejo a 38% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Ruben Ramirez won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Michelle Vallejo — 38% model odds
  2. Ruben Ramirez — 31% model odds (won)
  3. John Villarreal Rigney — 25% model odds
  4. Eliza Alvarado — 2% model odds
  5. Vanessa Stephanie Tijerina — 2% model odds
  6. Julio Garza — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts