Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christian Collins a 38% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Morgan Luttrell won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Christian Collins — 38% model odds
  2. Morgan Luttrell — 38% model odds (won)
  3. Jessica Wellington — 6% model odds
  4. Jonathan Hullihan — 2% model odds
  5. Dan Mckaughan — 2% model odds
  6. Candice C. Burrows — 2% model odds
  7. Chuck Montgomery — 2% model odds
  8. Michael Philips — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts