Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jake Ellzey an 81% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Jake Ellzey won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jake Ellzey — 81% model odds (won)
  2. James Buford — 10% model odds
  3. Bill Payne — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts