Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pat Fallon an 81% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Pat Fallon won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pat Fallon — 81% model odds (won)
2. Dan Thomas — 9% model odds
3. John E. Harper — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts