Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Aditya "A.D." Atholi a 50% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Nathaniel Moran won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Aditya "A.D." Atholi — 50% model odds
2. Nathaniel Moran — 17% model odds (won)
3. Joe Mcdaniel — 17% model odds
4. John Porro — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts