Tennessee House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Robby Starbuck Newsom a 44% chance of winning the Tennessee House 2022 primary. Andy Ogles won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Robby Starbuck Newsom — 44% model odds
  2. Andy Ogles — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Beth Harwell — 17% model odds
  4. Kurt Winstead — 5% model odds
  5. Jeff Beierlein — 3% model odds
  6. Natisha Brooks — 3% model odds
  7. Geni Batchelor — 3% model odds
  8. Timothy Bruce Lee — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts