South Dakota Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John R. Thune a 65% chance of winning the South Dakota Senate 2022 primary. John R. Thune won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John R. Thune — 65% model odds (won)
2. Bruce Whalen — 17% model odds
3. Mark Mowry — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts