Pennsylvania Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David H. Mccormick a 35% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2022 primary. Mehmet Oz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. David H. Mccormick — 35% model odds
  2. Mehmet Oz — 33% model odds (won)
  3. Kathy J. Barnette — 21% model odds
  4. Jeffrey A. Bartos — 2% model odds
  5. Carla Herd Sands — 2% model odds
  6. Sean Peter Gale — 2% model odds
  7. George A. Bochetto — 2% model odds
  8. Scattered — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts