Pennsylvania Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Conor J. Lamb a 61% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2022 primary. John K. Fetterman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Conor J. Lamb — 61% model odds
2. John K. Fetterman — 23% model odds (won)
3. Malcolm Kenyatta — 5% model odds
4. Alexandria Gloria Khalil — 5% model odds
5. Scattered — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts