Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jeremy Shaffer a 56% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Jeremy Shaffer won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jeremy Shaffer — 56% model odds (won)
  2. Kathleen Ann Coder — 28% model odds
  3. Jason Killmeyer — 8% model odds
  4. Scattered — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts