Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Guy Ciarrocchi a 58% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Guy Ciarrocchi won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Guy Ciarrocchi — 58% model odds (won)
  2. Ronald Christopher Vogel — 19% model odds
  3. Regina Mauro — 10% model odds
  4. Stephen A. Fanelli — 6% model odds
  5. Scattered — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts