Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christian Nascimento an 80% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Christian Nascimento won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Christian Nascimento — 80% model odds (won)
  2. Daniel L., Jr. Burton — 10% model odds
  3. Scattered — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts