New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Claudia Tenney a 31% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Claudia Tenney won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Claudia Tenney — 31% model odds
2. Claudia Tenney — 31% model odds (won)
3. Claudia Tenney — 31% model odds
4. Mario Fratto — 2% model odds
5. George K. Phillips — 2% model odds
6. Scattered — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts