New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carl P. Paladino a 41% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Nick Langworthy won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Carl P. Paladino — 41% model odds
  2. Nick Langworthy — 17% model odds
  3. Nick Langworthy — 17% model odds (won)
  4. Nick Langworthy — 17% model odds
  5. Scattered — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts