New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Steve Wells a 33% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Brandon M. Williams won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Steve Wells — 33% model odds
2. Brandon M. Williams — 18% model odds
3. Brandon M. Williams — 18% model odds (won)
4. Brandon M. Williams — 18% model odds
5. Scattered — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts