New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Castelli a 29% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Matt Castelli won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Castelli — 29% model odds (won)
  2. Matt Castelli — 29% model odds
  3. Matt Putorti — 21% model odds
  4. Scattered — 21% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts