New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul D. Tonko an 84% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Paul D. Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Paul D. Tonko — 84% model odds (won)
  2. Rostislav Rar — 8% model odds
  3. Scattered — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts