New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pat Ryan a 66% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Pat Ryan won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pat Ryan — 66% model odds (won)
2. Aisha Mills — 14% model odds
3. Moses R. Mugulusi — 10% model odds
4. Scattered — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts