New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sean Patrick Maloney a 68% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Michael V. Lawler won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Sean Patrick Maloney — 68% model odds
  2. Michael V. Lawler — 3% model odds
  3. Michael V. Lawler — 3% model odds (won)
  4. William G. Faulkner — 3% model odds
  5. Charles J. Falciglia — 3% model odds
  6. Shoshana M. David — 3% model odds
  7. Jack W. Schrepel — 3% model odds
  8. Scattered — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts