New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jamaal Bowman a 76% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Jamaal Bowman won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jamaal Bowman — 76% model odds (won)
2. Vedat Gashi — 12% model odds
3. Catherine F. Parker — 4% model odds
4. Mark Jaffe — 4% model odds
5. Scattered — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts