New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 73% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Tina Forte won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 73% model odds
2. Tina Forte — 13% model odds (won)
3. Desi Joseph Cuellar — 5% model odds
4. Scattered — 5% model odds
5. Desi Cuellar — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts