New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Adriano Espaillat a 79% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Adriano Espaillat won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Adriano Espaillat — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Michael Hano — 7% model odds
  3. Francisco A. Spies — 7% model odds
  4. Scattered — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts