New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carolyn B. Maloney a 79% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Jerrold L. Nadler won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Carolyn B. Maloney — 79% model odds
2. Suraj Patel — 9% model odds
3. Jerrold L. Nadler — 4% model odds (won)
4. Ashmi Sheth — 4% model odds
5. Scattered — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts