New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nicole Malliotakis a 32% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Nicole Malliotakis won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Nicole Malliotakis — 32% model odds
2. Nicole Malliotakis — 32% model odds (won)
3. Nicole Malliotakis — 32% model odds
4. John Matland — 3% model odds
5. Scattered — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts