New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elizabeth Holtzman a 29% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Daniel Goldman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Elizabeth Holtzman — 29% model odds
  2. Mondaire L. Jones — 24% model odds
  3. Carlina Rivera — 24% model odds
  4. Daniel Goldman — 4% model odds (won)
  5. Yuh-Line Niou — 4% model odds
  6. Maud Maron — 2% model odds
  7. Brian Robinson — 2% model odds
  8. Jo Anne Simon — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts