New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Melanie D'Arrigo a 51% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Robert P. Zimmerman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Melanie D'Arrigo — 51% model odds
2. Robert P. Zimmerman — 37% model odds (won)
3. Jon Kaiman — 3% model odds
4. Joshua Alexander Lafazan — 3% model odds
5. Reema Rasool — 3% model odds
6. Scattered — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts