New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Andrew R. Garbarino a 24% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Andrew R. Garbarino won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Andrew R. Garbarino — 24% model odds
  2. Andrew R. Garbarino — 24% model odds (won)
  3. Andrew R. Garbarino — 24% model odds
  4. Jackie Gordon — 20% model odds
  5. Scattered — 3% model odds
  6. Robert Cornicelli — 2% model odds
  7. Mike Rakebrandt — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts