New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Bond a 55% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Nicholas J. Lalota won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Michelle Bond — 55% model odds
2. Bridget Fleming — 30% model odds
3. Nicholas J. Lalota — 4% model odds
4. Nicholas J. Lalota — 4% model odds (won)
5. Anthony M. Figliola — 4% model odds
6. Nicholas J. Lalota — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts