Nevada Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Adam Paul Laxalt a 73% chance of winning the Nevada Senate 2022 primary. Adam Paul Laxalt won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Adam Paul Laxalt — 73% model odds (won)
  2. Sam Brown — 4% model odds
  3. Sharelle Mendenhall — 3% model odds
  4. Of These Candidates — 3% model odds
  5. William "Bill" Hockstedler — 3% model odds
  6. Paul Rodriguez — 3% model odds
  7. Tyler T. Perkins — 3% model odds
  8. Carlo Poliak — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts