New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tayfun Selen a 24% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Paul Degroot won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Tayfun Selen — 24% model odds
  2. Toby Anderson — 24% model odds
  3. Paul Degroot — 22% model odds (won)
  4. Ruth Mcandrew — 15% model odds
  5. Alexander R. Halter — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts