New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thomas H., Jr. Kean a 67% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Thomas H., Jr. Kean won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Thomas H., Jr. Kean — 67% model odds (won)
2. Philip Rizzo — 9% model odds
3. Erik Peterson — 6% model odds
4. John Flora — 5% model odds
5. John Henry Isemann — 5% model odds
6. Kevin B. Dorlon — 5% model odds
7. Sterling I. Schwab — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts