New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Susan M. Kiley an 80% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Susan M. Kiley won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Susan M. Kiley — 80% model odds (won)
2. Rik Mehta — 13% model odds
3. Thomas Toomey — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts