New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Crispi a 41% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Christopher H. Smith won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Mike Crispi — 41% model odds
2. Christopher H. Smith — 37% model odds (won)
3. Steve Gray — 11% model odds
4. Mike Blasi — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts