New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ian A. Smith a 47% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Bob Healey won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Ian A. Smith — 47% model odds
2. Bob Healey — 26% model odds (won)
3. Nicholas J. Ferrara — 26% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts