New Hampshire Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Maggie Hassan a 31% chance of winning the New Hampshire Senate 2022 primary. Donald C. Bolduc won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Maggie Hassan — 31% model odds
  2. Bruce Fenton — 26% model odds
  3. Donald C. Bolduc — 24% model odds (won)
  4. Chuck Morse — 2% model odds
  5. Kevin H. Smith — 2% model odds
  6. Vikram Mansharamani — 2% model odds
  7. John Berman — 2% model odds
  8. Andy Martin — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts