New Hampshire Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bruce Fenton a 29% chance of winning the New Hampshire Senate 2022 primary. Maggie Hassan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Bruce Fenton — 29% model odds
  2. Maggie Hassan — 29% model odds (won)
  3. Donald C. Bolduc — 22% model odds
  4. Paul J. Krautmann — 2% model odds
  5. John Riggieri — 2% model odds
  6. Scattered — 2% model odds
  7. Chuck Morse — 2% model odds
  8. Kevin H. Smith — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts