New Hampshire House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lily Tang Williams a 17% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2022 primary. Robert Burns won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Lily Tang Williams — 17% model odds
  2. George Hansel — 14% model odds
  3. Ann Mclane Kuster — 13% model odds
  4. Robert Burns — 11% model odds (won)
  5. Scott Black — 9% model odds
  6. Jay Mercer — 9% model odds
  7. Dean A. Poirer — 9% model odds
  8. Michael Callis — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts