New Hampshire House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Pappas a 30% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2022 primary. Karoline Leavitt won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Chris Pappas — 30% model odds
  2. Tim Baxter — 26% model odds
  3. Karoline Leavitt — 21% model odds (won)
  4. Gail Huff Brown — 7% model odds
  5. Matt Mowers — 5% model odds
  6. Russell Prescott — 2% model odds
  7. Mary Maxwell — 2% model odds
  8. Kevin R. Rondeau — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts