North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Madison Cawthorn a 65% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Chuck Edwards won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Madison Cawthorn — 65% model odds
  2. Chuck Edwards — 12% model odds (won)
  3. Matthew Burril — 4% model odds
  4. Bruce O'Connell — 4% model odds
  5. Rod Honeycutt — 4% model odds
  6. Michele V. Woodhouse — 4% model odds
  7. Wendy Marie-Limbaugh Nevarez — 4% model odds
  8. Kristie Sluder — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts