North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Mchenry a 77% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Patrick Mchenry won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Patrick Mchenry — 77% model odds (won)
  2. Gary Robinson — 6% model odds
  3. Michael Magnotta — 6% model odds
  4. Jeff Gregory — 6% model odds
  5. Richard Speer — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts