North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lee Haywood an 18% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Christian Castelli won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Lee Haywood — 18% model odds
  2. Christian Castelli — 14% model odds (won)
  3. Mary Ann Contogiannis — 14% model odds
  4. Gerry Austin — 14% model odds
  5. Laura Pichardo — 14% model odds
  6. Marvin Boguslawski — 14% model odds
  7. William Schuch — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts