North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nida Allam a 46% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Valerie P. Foushee won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Nida Allam — 46% model odds
  2. Valerie P. Foushee — 39% model odds (won)
  3. Clay Aiken — 3% model odds
  4. Ashley Ward — 2% model odds
  5. Richard L. Watkins — 2% model odds
  6. Crystal Cavalier — 2% model odds
  7. Stephen J. Valentine — 2% model odds
  8. Matt Grooms — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts