North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Greg Murphy a 77% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Greg Murphy won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Greg Murphy — 77% model odds (won)
  2. Tony Cowden — 6% model odds
  3. Eric Earhart — 6% model odds
  4. George J. Papastrat — 6% model odds
  5. Brian Michael Friend — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts