North Carolina House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Erica D. Smith a 49% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2022 primary. Don Davis won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Erica D. Smith — 49% model odds
2. Don Davis — 43% model odds (won)
3. Jason Albert Spriggs — 4% model odds
4. Jullian C., Sr. Bishop — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts